First up this weekend from the Premier League is the Saturday lunchtime kick off between Stoke and Blackburn. This a funny game to get involved with betting wise, with the home side woefully short of form with just one win in their last eight league matches, including some hammerings at the hands of Bolton and Sunderland. If Tony Puliss side were newly promoted the alarm bells would be ringing but because of their recent strong campaigns youd have to say they have enough quality to pull themselves to safety as the season wears on.
Blackburn managed to take a point from their game with Wigan last week and its these battling qualities that are helping keep their manager in a job at the moment. I will say something for Rovers, that the players arent leaving much in the dressing room this season and theyre giving it a real go, something which could help them at the Britannia on Saturday. I do fancy Stoke to win this however, they have no Europa League game this week so should be fresh, they need a win to stop this run of poor results and their percentage game should be too good for Blackburn. Stoke are best price 5/6 for the win and Im going to go for a 2-1 correct scoreline in the favour of the home side at odds of 8/1 with Ladbrokes.
Arsenal v Fulham is Saturdays live evening game, with the home side as short as 1/2 to take all three points. Arsene Wengers side are on a good run of form and it was rather ironic that they became the first English side to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages midweek after they got off to such a wretched start to the season. I tipped up Robin Van Persie for Premier League top scorer at the beginning of the campaign at 9/1 with William Hill and the Dutch striker is now 7/4 with the same firm as he continues his blistering form in front of goal. I actually have a sneaky feeling Wenger may rest him for this match however as he may feel the side has enough to win this without its captain, so perhaps its advisable to wait for the teams to be announced before backing him in any goalscorer markets on Saturday.
Arsenal have been winning these types of games over the last two months and Fulham, despite a recent upturn in away form are generally poor on their travels. I couldnt back Arsenal at the prices but I think a bet on both teams to score at odds of 5/6 with Betfred is the way forward, particularly with the home sides proneness to conceding.
Sundays first live offering is Swansea v Aston Villa at the Liberty Stadium. I was at White Hart Lane on Monday and I have to say if Aston Villa play like they did against Spurs I can only see a home win this weekend. I like Alex McLeish as a man, hes honest and forthright, but if he continues to set up his team as he did against Tottenham then hes just playing into his critics hands. I could write an essay on where things went wrong last Monday but setting up like for like against a strong Spurs side was the big mistake. Add to that the inclusion of Alan Hutton on the wing and not utilising the pace of Agbonlahor on the flanks in a 4-5-1 formation, it was as easy a win for Harry Redknapps side as they will have encountered in 2011.
Swansea are no Tottenham but what you will get from Brendan Rodgers side is bags of controlled posession and if Villa allow their opponents as much space as they did against Spurs then this could be consecutive away defeats for the Villa. I dont think therell be a huge amount in this but quite fancy Swansea at the price of 13/10 with Paddy Power to win the match, with a small saver on the draw at 5/2 with Ladbrokes.
Finally the big match of the weekend is the Liverpool v Man City clash on Sunday afternoon. Liverpool showed what they can do when Kenny Dalglish picks the right side with their 2-1 win at Chelsea last weekend. Chelsea played the perfect way for them at Stamford Bridge, a nice high line with plenty of room in behind to exploit and give the front six ample opportunity to pressurise when not on the ball. This Liverpool side looks strong in the middle, plenty of width and movement which gives them plenty of options and the all important ingredient, pace. There doesnt seem to be any room for Andy Carroll and looking at the personnel and the system they play Im not entirely sure as to why he was bought at this stage. The midfield is not strong enough with two in the middle without Gerrard being one of these, so theres no natural width when he doesnt play and no service to a big man like Carroll up front.
City on the other hand suffered defeat at the hands of Napoli on Tuesday night which was really a poor result. Not taking anything away from Napoli but its not the first time Mancini has got his team wrong and its this kind of tinkering which raises question marks as to whether they can go all the way and win the Premier League this season. His side have already put away Spurs 5-1 and Man Utd 6-1 on their travels, but I dont see that kind of scoreline for them at Anfield on Sunday. Im sure Mancini will be happy with a point but Liverpool will be hungry for a win. Im happy taking on City here and a backing of Liverpool to win draw no bet at odds of 11/10 with Sky Bet is my tip.
We had a nice winning treble come up last week at a decent price, so Im hoping this week will be similar, by backing West Ham to beat Derby, who have lost their last three in a row, at 4/9, Stevenage to beat Walsall at 8/13 and League Two leaders Southend to beat Bristol Rovers at 4/6. A treble with Coral.com on those pays out just over 11/4.
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