Although a trip to Cheltenham for the Showcase Meeting beckons from a Channel 4 perspective theres absolutely no doubt where the focus of attention will be trained on Saturday afternoon, with Ascot and in particular horse number seven on the card in their 3.35 contest dominating the racing headlines.
I am of course referring to the force of nature which is Sir Henry Cecils Frankel, an eight-times raced, unbeaten son of Galileo who lines up the 1/3 market leader for the £567,100 first prize in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
Victories in the Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, St Jamess Palace and Sussex Stakes have all left us dreaming of what this extraordinary colt will go on to achieve, so is he money buying material at such short odds?
You wont find too many dissenting voices, but even the true greats such as Brigadier Gerard got chinned once in a lifetime, and theres certainly opposition capable of landing a punch in Saturdays field.
Brigadier Gerard famously came unstuck against Roberto at York, with punters and racing professionals alike stunned at his sole defeat in an 18-race career.
Perhaps its clutching at straws with one as good as Frankel preparing to strut his stuff, but theres also a stat which shows how difficult it is for the top mile horses to sustain their form over the course of a long season.
Dating back to 1988 a total of 15 Guineas winners ran beyond September 1st in the same season as their Newmarket win.
Of the 24 races those Classic winning colts contested guess how many resulted in a trip to the winners enclosure? A mere nine! Thats just 37.5%.
If thats not enough to make you a little anxious about lumping on at prohibitive odds then study the calibre of the opposition: fiercely proud of the Arc Meeting our French cousins havent exactly embraced Champions Day like its the best thing since a public transport strike, but care of Robert Collet they are responsible for star filly Immortal Verse, herself a Royal Ascot winner in June when taking the Coronation Stakes.
She gets weight from all comers due to the three pound fillies allowance, and picked up the Prix Jacques Le Marois when beating Goldikova at Deauville last time, to leave her cherry ripe for this.
Although she can have her moments, such as when she refused to enter the stalls at Newmarket, shes getting better all the time.
There is however another rampant improver in the field, a young horse who has seen more racing than Frankel this season with five outings, and has ground to make up on him from both the Greenham and the St Jamess Palace.
Im referring to Marco Bottis son of Exceed And Excel, the colt whos name would be up in lights after a dazzling campaign were it not for Frankel.
Can he beat him? Plenty of observers will scoff at this, but I honestly believe he can. Hes clearly getting better and better, thrives on his racing, and can expose any weakness if Frankel isnt at his brilliant best.
We could play safe and back Excelebration at 6/4 in the market without Frankel, but with 6/1 on offer each way with Paddy Power (who are going 1/4 odds a place) Id be suicidal if he were to go and beat Frankel and have to settle for 6/4, and beat him he can.
Even if he doesnt we can return a profit at 6/4 a place, and if he runs his race Im struggling to see him out of the frame.
The margin between them was four lengths in the Greenham back in April, but only two and a quarter when they met at Royal Ascot, and that was despite Excelebration meeting trouble in-running in the early stages of that race.
His season has yielded a cake walk in the German Guineas, an equally facile win in the Hungerford Stakes, plus Group 1 success in the Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp.
It shows the depth of quality on display here when a brilliant miler like Dick Turpin is readily dismissed with a quote of 25/1, but it is Champions Day, and though Ill salute Frankel if he turns on the style once again, for me the value lies in backing Excelebration each way at 6s with Paddy Power.
Earlier on the card I thought the Group 2 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes at 3.00pm would go the way of one of the three year olds, with William Haggas lining up his 20/1 Oaks winner Dancing Rain for an assault on this big pot.
She underlined her top level credentials by winning the German equivalent at Dusseldorf at the start of August, and has been kept fresh for this.
With no Blue Bunting present to spoil the party she can land this in the hands of Johnny Murtagh at 11/2 with Blue Square.
Official ratings combined with the three year old allowance give her a massive chance here. Win bet.
As for the Champion Stakes at 4.10pm Im firmly in the Godolphin camp, with their number one chance Dubai Prince unexposed and ready to upset some of his more celebrated rivals.
One run this season saw him win as he liked in a Conditions race at Newbury under Kieren Fallon last month, the form of which has been franked in extraordinary fashion after the horse he beat, Sir Henry Cecils Jet Away, won a similar contest by a whopping nine lengths at York a week or so ago.
The skys the limit for this unbeaten son of Shamardal, hes got no miles on the clock, Frankie in the saddle, and meets older rivals coming off the back of hard races, especially So You Think and Snow Fairy after their Longchamp exploits less than a fortnight ago.
If I was a bookmaker Id be very happy to lay So You Think at 2/1 in this company, but as a punter Im more than happy to help myself to the 9/1 available each way about Dubai Prince with Ladbrokes (who are betting 1/4 odds a place).
Similar Posts:
- Unveiling our New £5000 Horse Racing Tipster Competition
- NASCAR Sprint Cup Betting Preview: Irwin Tools Night Race
- Belmont Stakes – Animal Kingdom will NOT win!
- Preakness 2011: Can Animal Kingdom Close in on the Triple Crown?
- Kentucky Derby – The Major Preps Start Today!
